Annotated Bibliography
Booty, W., D. Lam, G. Bowen, O. Resler, L. Leon. 2005. Modeling changes in stream water quality due to climate change in a southern Ontario watershed. Canadian Water Resources Journal 30 (3): 211-226.
This research represents a pilot project to establish a methodology for assessing the sensitivity of watershed stream water quality to changes in water quantity caused by climate change. The pilot watershed is the Duffins Creek watershed, located 20 km east of the City of Toronto, Canada. Scenarios of climate change analyzed in this project were drawn from two internationally recognized climate models: the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) CGCM1 and the Hadley Centre HadCM2. The AGNPS (Agricultural Non-Point Source) model was used to predict changes in stream water chemistry. The results are compared to baseline conditions as well as future conditions based on 2020 land use scenarios. It was determined that 2020 land use scenarios typically result in much smaller changes in peak flows than are predicted for the climate change scenarios, especially the wet climate change scenarios. Understanding climate change responses is critical for the development of watershed plans and drinking water source protection studies. Currently, watershed studies are completed using climate information based on relatively short-term monitoring databases that reflect past weather patterns. It is widely understood that management actions advocated in watershed studies could be improved if consideration were given to the implication of climate changes. © 2005 Canadian Water Resources Association.
Cheng, C.S., H. Auld, G. Li, J. Klaassen, Q. Li. 2007. Possible impacts of climate
change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7 (1): 71-87.
Freezing rain is a major atmospheric hazard in mid-latitude nations of the globe. Among all Canadian hydrometeorological hazards, freezing rain is associated with the highest damage costs per event. Using synoptic weather typing to identify the occurrence of freezing rain events, this study estimates changes in future freezing rain events under future climate scenarios for south-central Canada. Synoptic weather typing consists of principal components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure (i.e., a hierarchical agglomerative cluster method), and discriminate function analysis (a nonhierarchical method). Meteorological data used in the analysis included hourly surface observations from 15 selected weather stations and six atmospheric levels of six-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) upper-air reanalysis weather variables for the winter months (November-April) of 1958/59-2000/01. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale four general circulation model (GCM) scenarios to the selected weather stations. Using downscaled scenarios, discriminant function analysis was used to project the occurrence of future weather types. The within-type frequency of future freezing rain events is assumed to be directly proportional to the change in frequency of future freezing rain-related weather types The results showed that with warming temperatures in a future climate, percentage increases in the occurrence of freezing rain events in the north of the study area are likely to be greater than those in the south. By the 2050s, freezing rain events for the three colder months (December-February) could increase by about 85% (95% confidence interval - CI: ±13%), 60% (95% CI: ±9%), and 40% (95% CI: ±6%) in northern Ontario, eastern Ontario (including Montreal, Quebec), and southern Ontario, respectively. The increase by the 2080s could be even greater: about 135% (95% CI: ±20%), 95% (95% CI: ±13%), and 45% (95% CI: ±9%). For the three warmer months (November, March, April), the percentage increases in future freezing rain events are projected to be much smaller with some areas showing either a decrease or little change in frequency of freezing rain. On average, northern Ontario could experience about 10% (95% CI: ±2%) and 20% (95% CI: ±4%) more freezing rain events by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, future freezing rain events in southern Ontario could decrease about 10% (95% CI: ±3%) and 15% (95% CI: ±5%) by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. In eastern Ontario (including Montreal, Quebec), the frequency of future freezing rain events is projected to remain the same as it is currently.
Chu, Cindy. 2005. Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions of several common and rare freshwater fishes in Canada. Diversity and Distributions 11 (4): 299-310.
Climate change will ultimately affect the supply and quality of freshwater lakes and rivers throughout the world. This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater fish distributions in Canada. Climate normals data (means from 1961 to 1990) from Environment Canada were used to map current climate found throughout the tertiary watersheds of Canada. Logistic regressions based on these climate data were used to develop predictive presence-absence equations for (a) common commercially and recreationally important species and (b) an Arctic freshwater species and a freshwater fish species of conservation significance listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife (COSEWIC). The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model 2(IS92a) provided forecasts of Canada's climate in 2020 and 2050. The data from this scenario and the logistic regressions provided a ready framework for predicting the potential distributions of the fishes. Physical and ecological barriers would have to be overcome for the distribution of these species to actually change in response to climate change. Generally, coldwater species may be extirpated from much of their present range while cool and warmwater species may expand northward. Species that are limited to the most southern regions of the country may expand northwards. A conceptual framework for assessing potential climate change impacts on fishes and the variety of management strategies required to deal with these impacts are discussed. Our forecasts demonstrate the need for climate change assessments in species at risk as well as for common species. © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. (43 refs.)
Cohen, Stewart. 2006. Learning with local help: Expanding the dialogue on climate change and water management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada. Climatic Change 75 (3): 331-358.
The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region. The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries. This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the "best" option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. © Springer 2006. (56 refs.)
Crabbe?, P. 2006. Institutional adaptation of water resource infrastructures to climate change in Eastern Ontario. Climatic Change 78 (1): 103-133.
Institutional barriers and bridges to local climate change impacts adaptation affecting small rural municipalities and Conservation Authorities (CAs are watershed agencies) in Eastern Ontario (Canada) are examined, and elements of a community-based adaptation strategy related to water infrastructures are proposed as a case-study in community adaptation to climate change. No general water scarcity is expected for the region even under unusually dry weather scenarios. Localized quantity and quality problems are likely to occur especially in groundwater recharge areas. Some existing institutions can be relied on by municipalities to build an effective adaptation strategy based on a watershed/region perspective, on their credibility, and on their expertise. Windows of opportunity or framing issues are offered at the provincial level, the most relevant one in a federal state, by municipal emergency plan requirements and pending watershed source water protection legislation. Voluntary and soon to be mandated climate change mitigation programs at the federal level are other ones. © Springer 2006. (67 refs.)
Cunderlik, Juraj M. 2005. Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal 50 (4): 631-654.
The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area. Copyright © 2005 IAHS Press. (109 refs.)
Denault, Catherine, Robert G. Millar, Barbara J. Lence. 2006. Assessment of possible impacts of climate change in an urban catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 42 (3): 685-697.
Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.
Duncan, K., E. Gregorich, P. Groffman, P. Kovacs, V. Magana, D. McKnight, E. Mills, and D. Schimel. 2001. North America. Chapter 15 in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, edited by J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, and K.S. White. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
North America has experienced challenges posed by changing climates and changing patterns of regional development and will continue to do so. Varying impacts on ecosystems and human settlements will exacerbate subregional differences in climate-sensitive resource production and vulnerability to extreme events. Opportunities may arise from a warming climate, and some innovative adaptation strategies are being tested as a response to current challenges (e.g., water banks), but there are few studies on how these strategies could be implemented as regional climates continue to change. Recent experience demonstrates high capability in emergency response to extreme events, but long-term problems remain.
Goldblum, D. 2005. Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35 (11): 2709-2718.
We consider the implications of climate change on the future of the three dominant forest species, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), at the deciduous-boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada. Our analysis is based on individual species responses to past monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in light of modeled (general circulation model) monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the study area for the 2080s. We then consider the tree species sensitivity to past climate with predicted conditions for the 2080 period. Sugar maple, located at its northern limit in the study area, shows the greatest potential for increased growth rates under the predicted warming and altered precipitation regime. White spruce is likely to benefit less, while the understory dominant balsam fir is likely to experience a decrease in growth potential. These projected changes would enhance the future status of sugar maple at its northern limit and facilitate range expansion northward in response to global warming. © 2005 NRC. (47 refs.)
Grant, R.F. 2006. Net ecosystem productivity of boreal aspen forests under drought and climate change: Mathematical modeling with Ecosys. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 140 (1-4): 152-170.
The net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of boreal aspen is strongly affected by comparative rates of annual potential evapotranspiration (Ea) and precipitation (Pa). Changes in Ea versus Pa during future climate change will likely determine changes in aspen NEP and consequently the magnitude of the carbon sink/source of a significant part of the boreal forest. We hypothesize that the effects of Ea versus Pa on aspen NEP can be modelled with a soil-root-canopy hydraulic resistance scheme coupled to a canopy energy balance closure scheme that determines canopy water status and thereby CO2 uptake. As part of the ecosystem model ecosys, these schemes were used to model diurnal declines in CO2 and latent heat (LE) exchange during a 3-year drought (2001-2003) at the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network (FCRN) southern old aspen site (SOA). These declines were consistent with those measured by eddy covariance (EC) at SOA, except that ecosystem CO2 effluxes modeled during most nights were larger that those measured by EC or gap-filled from other EC measurements. Soil CO2 effluxes in the model were close to, but sometimes smaller than, those measured by automated surface chambers at SOA. Diurnal declines in CO2 exchange during the drought caused declines in annual NEP in the model, and in gap-filled EC measurements (model versus EC in g C m-2: 275 versus 367 ± 110 in 2001, 82 versus 144 ± 43 in 2002 and 23 versus 104 ± 31 in 2003). Lower modeled NEP was attributed to the larger modeled CO2 effluxes. Ecosys was then used to predict changes in aspen net biome productivity (NBP = NEP - C lost from disturbance) caused by 6-year versus 3-year recurring droughts during 100-year fire cycles under current climate versus climate change projected under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. Although NBP was adversely affected during recurring 6-year droughts under current climate, it recovered quickly during non-drought years so that long-term NBP was maintained at 4 g C m-2 year-1. NBP rose by 10, 108 and 126 g C m-2 year-1 during the first, second and third centuries under climate change with recurring 3-year droughts, indicating a gradual rise in sink activity by boreal aspen. However recurring 6-year droughts during climate change caused recurring negative NBP (C losses), gradually depleting aspen C reserves and eventually causing dieback of the aspen overstory during the third century of climate change. This dieback was followed by a large decline in NBP. We conclude that NBP of boreal aspen will rise gradually under current projections of climate change, except under prolonged (e.g. 6 years) recurring droughts, which would eventually cause aspen to die back and substantial amounts of C to be lost. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (56 refs.)
Higgins, S. I., J. S. Clark, R. Nathan, and T. Hovestadt. Forecasting plant migration rates:Managing uncertainty for risk assessment. The Journal of Ecology 91 (3): 341.
Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species. Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty. In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty.
Ho, E., W.A. Gough. 2006. Freeze thaw cycles in Toronto, Canada in a changing climate. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 83 (1-4): 203-210.
Freeze thaw cycles are examined in Toronto Canada. Using data from 1960 to 1989 for three Toronto area weather stations, trends in freeze thaw activity, the relationship to mean monthly temperature and projections of freeze thaw activity are examined. For downtown Toronto the annual frequency of freeze thaw cycles is decreasing significantly, most notably in the shoulder months of October and April. At the Pearson International Airport and the Toronto Island Airport similar annual trends were not found, however there was evidence of decreased freeze thaw activity in April and October. Polynomial curve fitting provided functional relationships between mean monthly temperature and freeze thaw activity. These relationships enabled the assessment of freeze thaw activity under synthetic warming conditions. The results of this analysis show that the warming of the magnitude typically projected for the rest of this century will not likely generate a significant change in the freeze thaw activity although there are indications that the freeze thaw season will contract. © Springer-Verlag/Wien 2005.
Humphries, M. M., J. Umbanhowar, and K. S. McCann. 2002. Bioenergetic prediction of climate change impacts on northern mammals. Integrative and Comparative Biology 44 (2): 152-163.
Climate change will likely alter the distribution and abundance of northern mammals through a combination of direct, abiotic effects (e.g., changes in temperature and precipitation) and indirect, biotic effects (e.g., changes in the abundance of resources, competitors, and predators). Bioenergetic approaches are ideally suited to predicting the impacts of climate change because individual energy budgets integrate biotic and abiotic influences, and translate individual function into population and community outcomes. In this review, we illustrate how bioenergetics can be used to predict the regional biodiversity, species range limits, and community trophic organization of mammals under future climate scenarios. Although reliable prediction of climate change impacts for particular species requires better data and theory on the physiological ecology of northern mammals, two robust hypotheses emerge from the bioenergetic approaches presented here. First, the impacts of climate change in northern regions will be shaped by the appearance of new species at least as much as by the disappearance of current species. Second, seasonally inactive mammal species (e.g., hibernators), which are largely absent from the Canadian arctic at present, should undergo substantial increases in abundance and distribution in response to climate change, probably at the expense of continuously active mammals already present in the arctic.
Huntley, B., Y. C. Collingham, R. E. Green, and G. M. Hilton. 2004. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds. Ibis 148 (1).
Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their Possible impacts upon biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response to the changing climate. The Quaternary geological record provides examples of organisms that responded to the climatic fluctuations of that period in each of these ways, but also indicates that the two are not alternative responses but components of the same overall predominantly spatial response. Species unable to achieve a sufficient response by either or both of these mechanisms will be at risk of extinction; the Quaternary record documents examples of such extinctions. Relationships between the geographical distributions of birds and present climate have been modeled for species breeding in both Europe and Africa. The resulting models have very high goodness-of-fit and provide a basis for assessing the potential impacts of anthropogenic climatic changes upon avian species richness in the two continents. Simulations made for a range of general circulation model projections of late 21st century climate lead to the conclusion that the impacts upon birds are likely to be substantial. The boundaries of many species' potential geographical distributions are likely to be shifted ≥ 1000 km. There is likely to be a general decline in avian species richness, with the mean extent of species' potential geographical distributions likely to decrease. Species with restricted distributions and specialized species of particular biomes are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. Migrant species are likely to suffer especially large impacts as climatic change alters both their breeding and wintering areas, as well as critical stopover sites, and also potentially increases the distances they must migrate seasonally. Without implementation of new conservation measures, these impacts will be severe and are likely to be exacerbated by land-use change and associated habitat fragmentation. Unless strenuous efforts are made to address the root causes of anthropogenic climatic change, much current effort to conserve biodiversity will be in vain.
Jump, A. S., and J. Penuelas. 2005. Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecology Letters 8: 1010-1020.
Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate-related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range-wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate-related genetic diversity within populations.
Karimi, Shahram. 2005. Thirteen years after Rio: The state of energy efficiency and renewable energy in Canada. Bulletin of Science, Technology and Society.25 (6): 497-506.
Greenhouse gas emissions are adversely affecting the earth's climate, a global common and a public good. The contribution of individual countries has a limited effect on the biosphere, implying that only globally coordinated efforts may result in significant climate improvements. The Rio Earth Summit (1992) and Kyoto Protocol (1997) are manifestations of international efforts to achieve sustainable development through efficient use of energy and incorporating more renewable sources in global economy. In this article, the author examines the energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases and the utilization of renewable energy sources in Canada with respect to Agenda 21 commitments. An overview of the results of Canada's policies on climate change since Rio in terms of energy consumption, various sources of energy, and emission rates of greenhouse gases is also presented. It is concluded that the current plans of the Canadian government to deal with greenhouse gas emissions have not been effective. Copyright © 2005 Sage Publications. (14 refs.)
Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter, M.M. Wander, D.J. Wuebeles, D.R. Zak, R.L. Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson. 2003. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on Our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C.
Growing evidence suggests that the climate of the Great Lakes region is already changing: Winters are getting shorter, Annual average temperatures are growing warmer, The duration of lake ice cover is decreasing as air and water temperatures rise, Heavy rainstorms are becoming more common. This report examines these trends in detail and discusses the likelihood that they will continue into the future. The consequences of these climatic changes will magnify the impacts of ongoing human disturbances that fragment or transform landscapes, pollute air and water, and disrupt natural ecosystems and the vital goods and services they provide. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region explores the potential consequences of climate change, good and bad, for the character, economy, and environment of the Great Lakes region during the coming century. It also examines actions that can be taken now to help forestall many of the most severe consequences of climate change for North America's heartland.
Lemieux, C. and D. J. Scott. 2005. Climate change, biodiversity conservation and protected area planning in Canada. Canadian Geographer 49 (4): 384.
Protected areas are the most common and most important strategy for biodiversity conservation and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. However, most protected areas have been designed to represent (and in theory protect for perpetuity) specific natural features, species and ecological communities in-situ, and have not taken into account potential shifts in ecosystem distribution and composition that could be induced by global climatic change. This paper provides an overview of the policy and planning implications of climate change for protected areas in Canada, summarizes a portfolio of climate change adaptation options that have been discussed in the conservation literature and by conservation professionals and provides a perspective on what is needed for the conservation community in Canada to move forward on responding to the threat posed by climate change.
McBean, E. and H. Motiee. 2006. Assessment of impacts of climate change on water resources - a case study of the Great Lakes of North America. Hydrol. Earth System Science Discussions 3: 3183-3209.
Historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes are examined using regression analysis and Mann-Kendall statistics, with the result that many of these variables demonstrate statistically significant increases ongoing for a 5 six decade period. Future precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from Global Climate Change Models (GCMs) and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are, however, higher than GCM predictions for Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general 10 agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes in the Great Lakes Basin are likely the result of climate change.
McLeman, Robert. 2006. Vulnerability to climate change hazards and risks: Crop and flood Insurance. Canadian Geographer 50 (2): 217-226.
This paper reviews the widely used concepts of risk and vulnerability as they relate to climate and weather hazards, re-conceptualizes these terms in the context of climate change and illustrates this development using crop and flood insurance as examples. Government subsidization of insurance against risks associated with adverse climatic conditions and weather events, such as flood damage and crop loss, may lead to individual decisions that actually increase the susceptibility of people, property and economic activities to those risks. The processes that give rise to this phenomenon are important in understanding the vulnerability of human populations to climate change. In many regions, existing conditions that give rise to flooding or crop failure are likely to be exacerbated by climate change over coming decades. In the climate change field, vulnerability has been conceptualized as a function of exposure to risk and as an ability to adapt to the effects. In this context, crop and flood insurance are possible adaptive measures. This treatment of vulnerability compares with similar concepts in insurance and risk management whereby events that cause loss are known as perils, and physical conditions, such as climate change, that increase the likelihood of a peril occurring, are known as physical hazards. Human behaviour that increases the exposure of individuals to potential perils is known as morale hazard or moral hazard, depending on the intentions of the person. Vulnerability consequently becomes a function of hazard and responses taken to reduce risk. Examples of crop and flood insurance programs from Canada, New Zealand and the U.S. are used to show how subsidized insurance might create a morale hazard in addition to physical hazards such as short-term weather events and long-term climate change, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability than would otherwise exist. These findings demonstrate that human behaviour affects the formation of both exposure and adaptive capacity in the context of vulnerability to climate change. Responses taken to increase adaptive capacity may in some cases be offset by individual behaviour that increases exposure. © Canadian Association of Geographers/L'Association canadienne des ge?ographes, 2006. (40 refs.)
Mehdi, B., L. Connolly-Boutin, C. A. Madramootoo. 2006. Coping with the impacts of climate change on water resources; a Canadian experience. World Resource Review 18 (1): 62-83.
This paper presents some of the Canadian challenges related to water resources and climate, and describes the Canadian institutional responses that have been put in place to address adaptation mechanisms to cope with the impacts of a potentially changing climate. Recent extreme events in Canada are presented to provide an overview of some of the challenges being faced, after which the impacts of climate on four rather diverse sectors of water management are given and current coping mechanisms are outlined. The federal and provincial governments have reacted proactively to the issue of climate change, and have recognized that in addition to mitigating greenhouse gases and reducing emissions, it is essential to understand the impacts of climate change and how to adapt. In general, adaptation assistance varies from monetary support for adaptation strategies, to providing access to expert-knowledge networks on adaptation. A continued concerted effort on behalf of the government is necessary to ensure that continued and planned adaptation is carried out.
Motha, Raymond P. 2005. Impacts of present and future climate change and climate variability on agriculture in the temperate regions: North America. Climatic Change 70 (1-2): 137-164.
The potential impact of climate variability and climate change on agricultural production in the United States and Canada varies generally by latitude. Largest reductions are projected in southern crop areas due to increased temperatures and reduced water availability. A longer growing season and projected increases in CO2 may enhance crop yields in northern growing areas. Major factors in these scenarios analyzes are increased drought tendencies and more extreme weather events, both of which are detrimental to agriculture. Increasing competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural users also focuses attention on water management issues. Agriculture also has impact on the greenhouse gas balance. Forests and soils are natural sinks for CO2. Removal of forests and changes in land use, associated with the conversion from rural to urban domains, alters these natural sinks. Agricultural livestock and rice cultivation are leading contributors to methane emission into the atmosphere. The application of fertilizers is also a significant contributor to nitrous oxide emission into the atmosphere. Thus, efficient management strategies in agriculture can play an important role in managing the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. Forest and land management can be effective tools in mitigating the greenhouse effect. © Springer 2005. (39 refs.)
Peterson, A. T., E. Martinez-Meyer, C. Gonzalez-Salazar, and P. W. Hall. 2004. Modeled climate change effects on distribution of Canadian butterfly species. Canadian Journal of Zoology 82 (6): 851-859.
Climate change effects on biodiversity are being documented now frequently in the form of changes in phenology and distributional shifts. However, the form that these effects will take over a longer timespan is unclear; for this understanding, a quantitative, validated, predictive approach is key. Here, we use ecological niche modeling and general circulation model outputs to estimate future potential geographic distributions of 111 Canadian butterfly species. We develop future estimates under two emission scenarios from each of two climate change modeling centers; future projections for biodiversity are not only scenario dependent (more severe emission scenarios produce more severe effects on species' distributions) but also model dependent (the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis results were more severe than the Hadley Centre results). One interesting feature is the appearance of disjunctions in species' distributions, hence creating "vicariant events" over very short time periods. In general, however, a cost of 1%-3% additional loss of species' distributions is associated with more severe scenarios of emissions and climate change, suggesting that subtle biodiversity consequences are associated with the different climate futures debated in political circles.
Savva, Y., B. Denneler, A. Koubaa, F. Tremblay, Y. Bergeron and M.G. Tjoelker. Seed transfer and climate change effects on radial growth of jack pine populations in a common garden in Petawawa, Ontario, Canada. Forest Ecology and Management, 242 (2-3).
The effects of seed transfer and climate change on the width and basal area of tree rings were studied in 21 provenances of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) grown in a common-garden plantation in Petawawa, Ontario, Canada. Seed-source origin significantly influenced both mean tree-ring width and mean annual basal area increment over a 25-year growth period (1975-1999). Temperature and precipitation transfer functions were developed to predict width and basal area of tree rings of the jack pine populations. The best predictors of growth were the transfer distances of mean annual maximum daily temperature and annual precipitation between the plantation site and the seed origins. Radial growth of the jack pine populations was mainly related to temperature at seed origin and, to a lesser degree, to precipitation at seed origin. Extension of the transfer functions to three sets of independent data revealed significant correlations between estimated and predicted mean radial growth characteristics. Seed sources of jack pine originating from warmer and drier climates than that of the plantation site in Petawawa had slightly higher mean ring widths and basal areas than the local populations. The application of different climate change scenarios derived from general circulation models to the developed transfer functions indicated that radial growth of jack pine may decline only if significant climate changes occur, which might not happen before the mid 21st century. Both a higher radial growth of southern seed sources and a potential negative effect of a significant temperature increase and precipitation decrease in future suggest restricting the northward transfer of southern seed sources to less than 1° latitude. However, provenance specific differences in survivorship, frost- and disease-resistance, and cone serotiny should also be taken into consideration.
Scibek, J. 2006. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels Water Resources Research 42 (11).
A methodology is developed for linking climate models and groundwater models to investigate future impacts of climate change on groundwater resources. An unconfined aquifer, situated near Grand Forks in south central British Columbia, Canada, is used to test the methodology. Climate change scenarios from the Canadian Global Coupled Model 1 (CGCM1) model runs are downscaled to local conditions using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and the change factors are extracted and applied in LARS-WG stochastic weather generator and then input to the recharge model. The recharge model simulated the direct recharge to the aquifer from infiltration of precipitation and consisted of spatially distributed recharge zones, represented in the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) hydrologic model linked to a geographic information system (GIS). A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model, implemented in MODFLOW, is then used to simulate four climate scenarios in 1-year runs (1961-1999 present, 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) and compare groundwater levels to present. The effect of spatial distribution of recharge on groundwater levels, compared to that of a single uniform recharge zone, is much larger than that of temporal variation in recharge, compared to a mean annual recharge representation. The predicted future climate for the Grand Forks area from the downscaled CGCM1 model will result in more recharge to the unconfined aquifer from spring to the summer season. However, the overall effect of recharge on the water balance is small because of dominant river-aquifer interactions and river water recharge. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union. (40 refs.)
Scibek, Jacek. 2007. Groundwater-surface water interaction under scenarios of climate change using a high-resolution transient groundwater model. Journal of Hydrology 333 (2-4): 165-181.
A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model is used to simulate three climate time periods (1960-1999, 2010-2039, 2040-2069) for estimating future impacts of climate change on groundwater-surface water interactions and groundwater levels within the unconfined Grand Forks aquifer in south-central British Columbia, Canada. One-year long climate scenarios were run, each representing a typical year in the present and future (2020 s and 2050 s), by perturbing the historical weather according to the downscaled Canadian Coupled Global Model 1 (CGCM1) general circulation model results. CGCM1 downscaling was used to predict basin-scale runoff for the Kettle River upstream of Grand Forks. These results were converted to river discharge along the Kettle and Granby River reaches. Future climate scenarios indicate a shift in river peak flow to an earlier date in a year; the shift for the 2040-2069 climate is larger than for the 2010-2039, although the overall hydrograph shape remains the same. Aquifer water levels shift by the same interval, when compared on the same day of the year. Distal from the river, modeled water level differences are less than 0.5 m, but were found to be greater than 0.5 m near the river. The maximum groundwater levels associated with the peak hydrograph are very similar to present climate because the peak discharge is not predicted to change, only the timing of the peak. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (33 refs.)
Scott, Daniel, Brenda Jones. 2006. Impact of Climate Change on Golf Participation in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA): A Case Study. The Journal of Leisure Research 3.
Golf is identified as a large recreation industry that is particularly sensitive to weather and climate, yet research assessing the direct relationship between them is extremely limited. Consequently, the potential implications of climate change for the industry remain largely unexamined. This case study presents findings of an analysis of the influence of weather conditions on the number of rounds played at a golf course in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) of southern Ontario (Canada). An empirical relationship between daily rounds played and weather variables, derived through multiple regression analysis, was then used to examine the potential impacts of two climate change scenarios on the length of the golf season and the number of rounds played in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The model projected that as early as the 2020s the average golf season could be one to seven weeks longer and with much improved shoulder seasons annual rounds played could increase 5.5% to 37.1%. The model results for the warmer long-term climate change scenario (2080s) were very similar (average golf season within 3% and average rounds played within 2%) to a spatial climate analogue (Columbus, Ohio).
Simmons, A. D. and C. D. Thomas. 2004. Changes in Dispersal during Species' Range Expansions. The American Naturalist 164 (3): 378.
Explanations for rapid species' range expansions have typically been purely ecological, with little attention given to evolutionary processes. We tested predictions for the evolution of dispersal during range expansion using four species of wing-dimorphic bush cricket (Conocephalus discolor, Conocephalus dorsalis, Metrioptera roeselii, and Metrioptera brachyptera). We observed distinct changes in dispersal in the two species with expanding ranges. Recently colonized populations at the range margin showed increased frequencies of dispersive, long-winged (macropterous) individuals, compared with longer-established populations in the range core. This increase in dispersal appeared to be short-lived because 510 years after colonization populations showed similar incidences of macroptery to populations in the range core. These changes are consistent with evolutionary change; field patterns persisted when nymphs were reared under controlled environmental conditions, and range margin individuals reared in the laboratory flew farther than range core individuals in a wind tunnel. There was also a reproductive trade-off with dispersal in both females and males, which could explain the rapid reversion to lower rates of dispersal once populations become established. The effect of population density on wing morphology differed between populations from the range core (no significant effect of density) and expanding range margins (negative density dependence), which we propose is part of the mechanism of the changes in dispersal. Transient changes in dispersal are likely to be common in many species undergoing range expansion and can have major population and biogeographic consequences.
Wang, Shusen. 2007. Impact of climate variations on surface albedo of a temperate grassland. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2-4): 133-142.
Albedo controls surface energy balance and affects the microclimate conditions of ecosystems. Changes in albedo could induce significant changes in climate. Anthropogenic and natural factors, such as land cover and land use change, could result in the albedo change of land surfaces. In this study, we used Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and climate station observations to investigate the albedo patterns of a temperate grassland (Grasslands National Park, Canada) and its changes due to the impact of climate variations. Our study focuses on 3 years of data (2001-2003), each of which had a different climatic regime. In 2001, precipitation fell well below its historical mean, and drought severely affected agricultural production over the GNP region. In 2002, annual precipitation was well above its historical mean, although most of the precipitation fell in the late growing season and drought conditions still occurred in the early growing season of the year. In 2003, annual precipitation was slightly lower than its historical mean, but more precipitation fell in the early growing season. MODIS and climate station observations suggest (a) during the winter-to-summer and summer-to-winter transitional periods, air temperature plays an important role in determining the surface albedo by controlling snow absence and presence; (b) in the winter season, the amount of precipitation (snow) greatly affects the surface albedo of this ecosystem; (c) in the growing season, ecosystem water conditions can significantly alter the surface albedo of the semiarid grassland through their impact on plant growth and ecosystem conditions. These results show that surface albedo changes of this temperate grassland highly respond to climate variations. The results of this study have a number of implications in weather forecasting, climate change, and ecosystem studies. Our results stress the importance of (a) accurately simulating snow coverage fractions in regions where snow cover tends to exist throughout a long winter season, and thus, has a large influence on surface albedo; (b) accurately simulating temperatures during seasonal transitional periods (winter-summer or summer-winter) since they determine the dates that snow covers the land surface and, in turn, strongly impact on simulations of surface albedo; (c) explicitly linking the impacts of climate change with variations on surface albedo, and the feedbacks of the albedo response to the physical climate system, in the climate model projections. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (51 refs.)
Wei, Anhua. 2006. Synergistic impact of water level fluctuation and invasion of Glyceria on Typha in a freshwater marsh of Lake Ontario. Aquatic Botany 84 (1): 63-69.
The effects of multiple stressors on the native Typha marsh community (mainly Typha latifolia) were examined using historical records of water levels, human census population, and field vegetation maps. Percent cover of the major plant species was estimated in a GIS, and the percent cover of Typha was related to changes in water level, human population growth, and percent cover of exotic Glyceria maxima and invasive Phragmites australis. Water level fluctuation was the major natural disturbance and it alone accounted for 88% of the variation in Typha. After partitioning out the effect of water level, both human population growth and the presence of exotic species were still significantly related to the decline of native Typha. We suggest that multiple stressors interact with each other to influence changes in native Typha community and cause greater detrimental impact. An important implication of our results is that projected water level decline due to climate change may not necessarily favor the restoration of a desirable native marsh because of the presence of other disturbances such as exotic and invasive species and altered nutrient regime. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (26 refs.)
Wilby, R. L. and G. L. W. Perry. 2006. Climate change, biodiversity and the urban environment: a critical review based on London, UK. Progress in Physical Geography 30 (1): 73.
According to projections by the United Nations, 60% of the world's population will reside in urban areas by 2030. Studies of the ecology of cities and ecology in cities will therefore assume increasing relevance as urban communities seek to protect and/or enhance their ecological resources. Presently, the most serious threats to wildlife include the degradation and/or loss of habitats, the introduction and spread of problem species, water pollution, unsympathetic management, and the encroachment of inappropriate development. Climate change could add to these problems through competition from exotic species, the spread of disease and pests, increased summer drought stress for wetlands and woodland, and sea-level rise threatening rare coastal habitats. Earlier springs, longer frost-free seasons, and reduced snowfall could further affect the dates of egg-laying, as well as the emergence, first flowering and health of leafing or flowering plants. Small birds and naturalized species could thrive in the warmer winters associated with the combined effect of regional climate change and enhanced urban heat island. This article reviews the range of climate-related threats to biodiversity in the aquatic, intertidal and terrestrial habitats of urban areas. London is used as a case study to illustrate potential impacts, and to contend that 'green spaces' in cities could be used by planners to counter climate-related threats to biodiversity, as well as to improve flood control and air quality, and reduce urban heat island effects.
Wilson. 2003. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on Our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C.
Growing evidence suggests that the climate of the Great Lakes region is already changing: Winters are getting shorter, Annual average temperatures are growing warmer, The duration of lake ice cover is decreasing as air and water temperatures rise, Heavy rainstorms are becoming more common. This report examines these trends in detail and discusses the likelihood that they will continue into the future. The consequences of these climatic changes will magnify the impacts of ongoing human disturbances that fragment or transform landscapes, pollute air and water, and disrupt natural ecosystems and the vital goods and services they provide. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region explores the potential consequences of climate change, good and bad, for the character, economy, and environment of the Great Lakes region during the coming century. It also examines actions that can be taken now to help forestall many of the most severe consequences of climate change for North America's heartland.
Wrona, Frederick J. 2006. Climate change effects on aquatic biota, ecosystem structure and Function. Mbio 35 (7): 359-369.
Climate change is projected to cause significant alterations to aquatic biogeochemical processes, (including carbon dynamics), aquatic food web structure, dynamics and biodiversity, primary and secondary production; and, affect the range, distribution and habitat quality/quantity of aquatic mammals and waterfowl. Projected enhanced permafrost thawing is very likely to increase nutrient, sediment, and carbon loadings to aquatic systems, resulting in both positive and negative effects on freshwater chemistry. Nutrient and carbon enrichment will enhance nutrient cycling and productivity, and alter the generation and consumption of carbon-based trace gases. Consequently, the status of aquatic ecosystems as carbon sinks or sources is very likely to change. Climate change will also very likely affect the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems across most of the Arctic. The magnitude, extent, and duration of the impacts and responses will be system- and location-dependent. Projected effects on aquatic mammals and waterfowl include altered migration routes and timing; a possible increase in the incidence of mortality and decreased growth and productivity from disease and/or parasites; and, probable changes in habitat suitability and timing of availability. (120 refs.)
OTHER ARTICLES
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. 2000. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian agriculture: options report. Ottawa: Agriculture and Agri-Food Climate Change Table.
Argyilan, E.P. and S.L. Forman. 2003. Lake level response to seasonal climatic variability in the lake Michigan-Huron System from 1920 to 1995. Journal of Great Lakes Research 29: 488-500.
Blaustein, A.R., root T.L., Kiesecker, J.M., Belden L.K., Olson, D.H., and Green, D.M. 2002. Amphibian breeding and climate change: rely to Corn. Conservation Biology 17 (2): 626-627.
Bohannon, J. 2007. IPCC Report lays Out Options for Taming Greenhouse Gases, Scientist 16.
Brahic, Catherine. 2006. Earth's sixth warmest year on record, New Scientist. http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn10800-2006-was-earths-sixth-warmest-year-on-record.html
Brahic, Catherine. 2007. Recent CO2 rises exceed worst-case scenarios, New Scientist.
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11899-recentcosub2subrisesexceed worstcase-scenarios.html
Brandt, S.B., Mason, D.M., McCormick, M.J., Lofgren, B., and Hunter, R.S. 2002. Climate Change : Implications for Fish Growth Performance in the Great lakes. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32: 61-76.
Broecker, W. S. 2007. CO2 Arithmetic, Science 315.
Brooks, A.A. and Zastrow, J.C. 2002. The potential influence of climate change on offshore primary production in Lake Michigan. Journal of Great lakes Research 28 (4): 597-697.
Canada Climate Change and Health Office. 2001. Climate Change and Health and Well-being : A Policy Primer. Ottawa: Canada Climate Change and Health Office.
Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment. 2003. Climate, nature, people: indicators of Canada's changing climate. Winnipeg: Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment
Chameides, W. and M. Oppenheimer. 2007. Carbon Trading Over Taxes," Scientist 315.
Corn, P.S. 2003. Amphibian breeding and climate change: importance of snow in the mountains. Conservation Biology 17 (2): 622-625.
Davis, M., Douglas, C., Calcote, R., Cole, K.L., Green Winkler, M., Flakne, R. 2000. Holocene Climate in the Western Great Lakes National Parks and Lakeshores Implications for Future Climate Change. Conservation Biology 14 (4): 968-983.
Deloe, R.C., Kreutzwiser, R.D. 2000. Climate variability, climate change, and water resource management in the Great Lakes. Climate Change 45: 163-179.
Government of Canada. 2002. A Discussion Paper on Canada's contribution to addressing climate change. Ottawa: Government of Canada.
Gunn, J.M., Snucins, E., Yan, N.D., Arts, M.T. 2001. Use of water clarity to monitor the effects of climate change and other stressors on oligotrophic lakes. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 67: 69-88.
Hall, S., R. Peters and M. Winfield. 2006. A Quick-start energy efficiency strategy for Ontario. The Pembina Institute.
Hansen, A. J., R. P. Neilson, V. H. Dale, C. H. Flather, L. R. Iverson, D. J. Currie, S. Shaffer, R. Cook, and P. J. Bartlein. 2001. Global Change in Forests: Responses of Species, Communities, Biomes. BioScience 51(9): 765-779.
Harrison, P.A.., Berry, P.M. and Dawson, T.P. (eds). 2001. Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Britain and Ireland: Modeling natural resource response to climate change (The MONARCH Project).
Jyrkama, Mikko I., Jon F. Sykes. 2007. The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the grand river watershed (Ontario), Journal of Hydrology, no. 338 iss. 3-4, pp. 237-250.
Kerr, J.T. 2001. Butterfly species richness patterns in Canada: energy, heterogeneity, and the potential consequences of climate change. Conservation Ecology 5 (1): 10.
Kerr, R. A. 2007. Scientists Tell Policymakers We're All Warming the World, Science 315.
Kerr, R. A. 2007. Yes, It's Been Getting Warmer in Here Since the CO2 Began to Rise, Scientist 312.
Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and G.C. Hegerl. 2007. Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations. Journal of Climate v.20.
Kintisch, E. 2006. Along the Road From Kyoto. Scientist 311.
Klassen, J. and Auld, H. (eds.) 2001. Impacts and Adaptation of Climate Change: Developing an Ontario Node of Nation C-CIARN Network. Workshop Proceedings. Toronto: Environment Canada-Ontario Region.
Klein, R.J.T., Nicholl, R.J., Ragoonaden, S., Capobianco, M., Aston, J., and E.N. Buckley. 2001. Technical options for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones. Journal of Coastal Research 17(3): 531-543.
Kreutzwiser, R., L. Moreau, R. de Loe, B. Mills and K. Schaefer, 2003. Drought sensitivity of municipal water supplies in Ontario. Great Lakes Geographer 9(2): 59-70.
Lehman, J.T. 2002. Mixing patterns and plankton biomass of the St. Lawrence Great Lakes under climate change scenarios. Journal of Great lakes Research 28 (4): 583-596.
Le Page, Michael. 2007. Climate change: A guide for the perplexed, New Scientist. http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462
Le Page, Michael. 2007. Climate myths: Many leading scientist question climate change, New Scientist: http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11654-climate-myths-many-leading-scientists-question-climate-change.html
Lofgren, B.M. 2002. Global Warming influences on Water Levels, Ice, and Chemical and Biological Cycles in Lakes: Some Examples. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32: 15-22.
Lofgren, B.M., Quinn, F.H., Clities, A.H., Assel, R.A., Eberhardt, A.J., Luukkonen, C.L. 2002. Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs. Journal of Great Lakes Research 28 (4) 537-554.
Maclver, D.C. and Dallmeier, F. (eds). 2000. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Adaptive Management. IPCC Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change Variability and Change: Adaptive Management. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 61 (1).
Magnuson, J.J. 2002. A future of adapting to climate change and variability. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32:273-282.
Malcolm, J.R., Liu, C., Miller, L.B., Allnutt, T., Hansen, L. 2002. Habitats at risk: global warming and species loss in globally significant terrestrial ecosystems. Gland: WWF-World Wide Fund for Nature.
Marbek Resource Consultants. 2003. Federal climate change adaptation strategy Working Document (Fourth Draft December 13, 2002).
Marcogliese, D.J., 2001. Implication of climate change for parasitism of animals in the aquatic environment. Canadian Journal of Zoology 79: 1331-1352.
McCarty, J. 2001. Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology 15: 320-3331.
McLean, R., Waters, D., and Watt, W.E. 2003 Report 2003-1: Climate Change and Urban Stormwater Infrastructure in Canada: Context and Case Studies. Toronto-Niagara Region Study Report and Working Paper Series. Kingston: Hydrology Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering at Queen's University.
Midgley, G.F., Hannah, L, Millar, d., Rutherford, M.C., Powrie, L.W. 2002. Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11: 445-451.
Ministry of Water, Land, and Air Protection-British Columbia. 2002. Indicators of Climate Change for British Columbia 2002.
Mortsch, L., M. Alden and J.D. Scheraga. 2003. Climate Change and Water Quality in the Great Lakes Region: Risks, Opportunities and Responses. Prepared for the Great Lakes Water Quality Board of the International Joint Commission.
Muzic, I. 2001. Sensitivity of Hydrologic Systems to Climate Change. Canadian Water Resources Journal 26 (2): 233-252.
National Climate Change Process. 2000. Canada's First Climate Change Business Plan. Ottawa: National Climate Change Process.
Peterson, A.T. 2003. Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds; generalities of biodiversity consequences. Global Change Biology 9: 647-655.
Peterson, J.U.J. and Kitchell, J.F. 2001. Climate regimes and water temperature changes in the Columbia River; biogenetic implications for predators of juvenile salmon. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58: 1831-1841.
Price, J.T., T.L. Root, K.R. Hall, G. Masters, L. Curran, W. Fraser, M. Hutchins and N. Myers. 2000. Climate change, wildlife and ecosystems. Supplemental information prepared for IPCC Working Group II, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change.
Pielke Sr., R. A. 2005. Land Use and Climate Change. Scientist 310.
Scheraga, J.D. and Furlow, J. 2002. Preface to the potential impacts of climate change in the Great Lakes Region. Journal of Great Lakes Research 28 (4): 493-495
Schneider, W.H., Easterling, W.W. and McEarns, L.O. 2000. Adaptation; sensitivity to natural variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes. Climatic Change 45:203221.
Schindler, D.W. 2001. The cumulative effects of climate warming and other human stresses on Canadian freshwater in the new millennium. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58: 18-29.
Shuter, B.J., Minns, C.K., Lester, N. 2002. Climate Change, freshwater fish and fisheries: Case studies from Ontario and their use in assessing potential impacts. American Fisheries society Symposium 32: 77-88.
Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R.J.T., Wandel. 2000. An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability. Climatic Change 45: 223-251.
Smith, J., Lavender, B., Smit, B. and Burton, L. 2001. Climate Change and Adaptation Policy. Isuma 75-81.
Sousounis, P.J. and Bisanz, J.M. (eds). 2000. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change in the Great Lakes Region. A summary by the Great Lakes Regional Assessment Group for the US Global Change Research Program.
Suzuki, David. 2005. The Beauty of Wind Farms, New Scientist:
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/mg18624956.400-the-beauty-of-wind-farms.html
Thuiller, W., S. Lavorel, M. B. Araujo, M. T. Sykes, and I. C. Prentice. 2005. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Washington: June 7, 2005. Vol. 102(23): 8245.
Warren, F.J. 2004. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective. Lemmen, D.S. and Warren, FJ. (eds). Ottawa: Queen's Printer for Canada.
Watts, O. 2005. A landscape view to help wildlife cope. Planning. London: Nov. 2005, pg. 10.
Whitfield, P.H. and A.J. Cannon. 2000. Recent variations in climate and hydrology in Canada. Canadian Water Resources Journal 25: 19-65.
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